A CoinDesk analysis by Omkar Godbole back on Wednesday March 13th points out that bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a range defined by the 200-week simple moving average (MA) and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) which at the time of Godbole’s report was respectively $3,404 and $4,106.
BTC needs a price break above the upper level to confirm any longer term bullish trend. Should the price move below the lower level the bear market could very well revive.
Back in the third week of last November, BTC prices fell below the 200-week EMA that bolstered the bearish outlook and breached the support level of $6,000 at high volumes. However, in the middle of December the sell-off began to run out of steam with prices bouncing above the simple moving average (SMA) then at near $3,100. This level has provided strong support at least 3 times in the last three months.
At the same time, this seller exhaustion is not being accompanied by any strong buying pressure with the result that bitcoin has not been able to break through the $4,106 level for the last 13 weeks. With the prices stuck between the two moving averages, the immediate outlook on the weekly chart is neutral.
On the weekly chart, bitcoin had a corrective rally after it defended the 200-week SMA support leve in mid-December ahd also early February 2019. In both cases though the rally failed to close above the 200-week EMA of $4,106.
With several weekly indicators now showing early signs of a bull reversal there is a good chance of a bearish-to-bullish trend change if BTC closes the week above $4,106. If this happens the way would be open to move above the $4,236 December 24 high towards the $5,000 level.
The odds of BTC challenging the lower $3,404 end of the trading range will increase if bitcoin finds price acceptance below $3,658 which would invalidate the bullish long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. A weekly close below the $3,404 level could lead to a sell-off below $3,000.
The present situation
24 hours ago bitcoin was trading at $3,858 according to CoinDesk data. Its low since then was just $3,843 and most of the day the trend has been up. The high so far has been $3,908. At 19:05 Central Standard Time the price was just below this at $3,900 or a gain of 1.1 percent so far or $42. The trend appears to be upward but there is still some ways to go to even reach $4,000. The present price of bitcoin can be found here.